Where Things Stand: Duck Hunting
by Jim at The BBC on Dec 4, 2009 6:30 PM EST
25 comments
In my last update I briefly looked at the defensive line. To summarize, they are really good.
As it turns out, Oregon's rushing attack is pretty good as well, which is going to make the battle between Oregon's offense vs. Ohio State's defense a hot topic in the weeks to come.
Well, I made a few pretty charts to look at this battle of strengths, and since games are won in the trenches (and I am trying to make the point that Ohio State's biggest advantage in this game is going to be the offensive and defensive lines), I narrowed my look to just rushing offense versus rushing defense.
Side note: these stats aren't complete, as this weeks games aren't factored into the rankings yet, but I just couldn't wait to start looking into this, and I figure one extra weeks worth of stats for a few teams isn't going to change things all that much.
Okay, so here is my first chart. The blue line represents how many rushing yards Oregon had in each game. The red line represents how many yards their opponent gave up on average each game. Finally, the rank of each opponents rushing defense is in parenthesis.
Behold my awesome excel skills.
So, my nifty little chart shows a couple of things. First, the toughest rushing defense Oregon faced was last night against Oregon State at 13 (even though that will probably go down after last night) and second, Oregon consistently rushes for more yards than the opposing defenses usually give up.
Okay, on to the next chart. Same idea, only this time I charted how many yards Ohio State's opponents averaged rushing this year (red line) versus how many yards they gained against the Buckeyes (blue line). Once again the opponents offensive rushing rank is in parenthesis.
Ohio State has held every team they have played against (except Minnesota??) to significantly less than their usual production on the ground, including Navy with their 3rd ranked rushing attack.
The unstoppable force versus the immovable object. A top 10 rushing offense versus a top 5 rushing defense. I'm willing to call it a wash. Even though Ohio State has a better defense than Oregon has played against all year and I have my personal bias that would lead me to say that Ohio State is going to smash Oregon in every way, what the hell, let's just call it a wash.
The match up between Oregon's offense and Ohio State's defense really isn't what I am interested in however, and I just did those graphs for fun (also because I really don't want to write my finals papers).
The match up I am most looking forward to is Ohio State's rushing attack versus Oregon's defense. I mentioned in my look at the defensive line that the offensive line has been kicking some serious ass lately, well here is a graph to show that ass kicking visually.
Same set up as before, but just so no one gets confused, Ohio State rushing in blue, what the opponent averaged giving up on the ground in red.
The chart shows that Ohio State had mixed success at the beginning of the year (shocker), but after the Purdue game (bleh) Ohio State has been doing some serious work on the ground, with the crown jewel being the performance against Penn State's 10th ranked rushing defense.
And now for Oregon's defense.
It's not quite as pretty as the OSU defense, is it? With a few exceptions at the beginning of the year, the Oregon D has been allowing apposing offenses to rush for pretty close to their season averages.
The crown jewel of this chart is Stanford's #11 ranked rushing offense and the 236 yards they gained on the ground against Oregon, which of course led to a 51-42 defeat of the Ducks.
The good and still improving #17 rushing offense (198.92 ypg) against the #40 rushing defense (130.64 ypg) that gives up basically whatever the offense wants to take.
Sounds good to me.
Establish the run game, keep the ball out of Oregon's hands (even though our D is probably going to slow them down significantly anyways), and get that W.
That's the game plan.
But enough with numbers and charts, its time to talk about the players.
I already went over who will be shutting down Oregon's rushing attack, so here are the big fellas that will be establishing our rushing attack.
Offensive Line
What a trip it has been. From the uncertainty of the preseason, to pleasantly surprised after USC, to 'what the hell is going on here' after Purdue, to confidence and anticipation heading into the Rose Bowl. Those have been my basic feelings regarding the offensive line this year.
Despite the ups and downs, things are definitely up right now for the offensive line(did you see the chart? no?? go back and look, I spent a lot of time on that) and they couldn't have picked a better time.
LT
Is there anything he can't do? Maybe he can help me remove that little 'zoom' thing up in the corner of his picture next time.
We'll start, once again, at left tackle. Not only is it one of the most important positions on the line, it is also (somewhat frustratingly) the one that has the most question marks surrounding it going into the bowl game.
At the beginning of the year, LT was a two way battle between Mike Adams (SO #75) and Andy Miller (RS JR #55). Several injuries and a flu bug or two later and journeyman Jim Cordle (RS SR #64) somehow found his way into the conversation at LT.
I would imagine that Cordle will be the starter for the bowl game, but I would also think that both Miller and Adams (if healthy) would receive playing time as well. The upside of the frustrating lack of consistency at LT this year has been lots of game experience from three players who are all serviceable.
Miller started at LT against Navy, USC, Toledo, and Illinois.
Adams started at RT against Illinois and at LT against Indiana, Wisconsin, and Purdue.
Cordle started at RT against Navy and USC, and at LT against Minnesota, New Mexico State, Penn State, Iowa, and Michigan.
So yeah, not much consistency, but lots of experience at least.
It seems that the resurgence of the running game has coincided with Cordle moving to LT, so that looks like a good thing.
Cordle graduates after this year, so it looks like it could be a two way battle between Adams and Miller for the starting spot again next year.
On the other hand, there is a very real possibility that all world high school phenom Seantrel Henderson could be making a debut at LT for the Bucks next year, so stay tuned for that.
But for now, it looks like Cordle is the man at LT for the Rose Bowl.
RT
Cordle (remember him) started the year at RT, but an injury caused him to miss some games, allowing J.B. Shugarts (SO #76) to step in and he never looked back, which, coincidentally, allowed Cordle to move over to LT.
No more question marks at RT for the near future.
Shugarts has started at RT in every game since week 5 against Indiana (minus the Iowa game due to injury) and he has done very well to say the least. RT looks to be in great shape for the next few years.
Backing up Shugarts at RT is true freshman Marcus Hall (#79). It looked liked Hall was going to take a red shirt this year, but apparently the coaches were so impressed with him in practice that they couldn't keep him out of the game (it also didn't hurt that the injury bug hit the line in the middle of the year).
Starting in week 5 against Indiana, Hall has been getting game time at RT, and he even got the start against Iowa.
I think ultimately Hall will end up sliding down to guard before his time in Columbus is over, but where ever he ends up, he is pretty damn good and provides valuable depth along the line.
LG, C, RG
So I am going to clump these three positions together.
Justin Boren
Is not a fan of ducks.
(RS JR #65), Mike Brewster (SO #50), and Bryant Browning (RS JR #70) have been the starters from left to right on the inside for basically the entire year (minus an injury here or there) and they have also performed at or above expectations for basically the entire year.
Apparently there were some communication issues along the line early in the year (culminating in the disaster at Purdue) between Brewster and the rest of the line, particularly when it came to pass protection schemes, but it looks like things have been sorted out and as I have mentioned previously, things are looking good.
There are also some backups at these positions, but all three of the killer B's are coming back next year and I have been writing for a long time, so I will just leave it at that.
_________________________
So that does it for the offensive line. They have been giving Pryor time in the pocket, they have been opening up running lanes to the tune of 200+ yards per game, and they will be facing on Oregon team whose defensive line lacks first round draft talent (unlike the previous three years' bowl games).
Oh, and did I mention that four of the five lineman are coming back next year, along with practically the entire offense.
Yeah, things are looking pretty good for the Rose Bowl and beyond.
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You forgot to factor in the head to head match ups. USC, a team that OSU lost to AT HOME, was absolutely destroyed by Oregon. It was a no-contest. Look for them to do the same to happen to OSU on January 1.
by chasman on Dec 4, 2009 9:49 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
and you forgot to factor in that Ohio State beat Navy, who beat Wake Forrest, who beat Stanford, who beat Oregon, so Ohio State will win
nice analysis though
by Jim on Dec 4, 2009 10:18 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Great post Jim. Fantastic work =)
Keep up the excellent procrastinating!
by Eric on Dec 4, 2009 11:38 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Common opponents mean teams both competing teams played against. Referencing Navy beating Wake Forest etc. etc. displays a tired mind with no ability to think sequentially. Go to bed and try to come up with a more rational response tomorrow.
by chasman on Dec 4, 2009 11:51 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Head to match-ups are not that valuable to compare the current two teams. No one pointed out that Purdue whooped up on OSU and the Ducks beat them. To me that does not mean squat. The facts are the Big 10(11) is a pretty weak league…as usual. For the Rose Bowl, OSU has its typical good defense, but they have not played anyone in the last six years with as fast or conditioned offense like Oregon’s.
OSU’s offense…even buckeye fans know that they are sub par. Is this the game where Pryor has a highlight night? Don’t think so, why? Two reasons, we stuff the run as well or better than USC, Penn St., or Northwestern. Don’t even add Iowa in that mix, the only thing they have stuffed is each others bra’s.
This game is just an all around bad match-up for ohio st.
Ducks Roll…42 buckeyes 21
by oregonlove78 on Dec 5, 2009 1:18 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Transitive property means jack and shit in college football. Oregon beating USC who happened to beat Ohio State (by three points, no less) says nothing about the Rose Bowl.
by Sam on Dec 5, 2009 1:51 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
chasman,
Three USC linebackers got hurt in the game against the Ducks, including the Galippo and Jones. Everson Griffin, USC’s best D-lineman, was also lost early in that game.
By halftime of the USC-Oregon game, the Ducks were, for all practical purposes, playing USC’s 2nd-team defense. That was not the same team Ohio State played in September.
As far as Purdue is concerned, Oregon gave up 36 points to the Boilers. Ohio State committed 5 turnovers in a fluke sophomoric day by the offense, practically never possessed the ball (only 24 minutes), and the defense still only gave up 26.
That was a turning point in Ohio State’s season. The Buckeyes won their final 5 games, two of which were round robin-style November games to win the conference. The rushing game has since woken up, and has played its best football when it was needed to peak most (reference above graphs).
I’m not trying to undercut Oregon’s season by any means. I think this is a very intriguing matchup, and I think Oregon has looked every bit as dangerous as any offense in the country. Ohio State’s defense looks like one of the best it has ever fielded. The two games against common opponents don’t tell a good story.
by Bucksfan on Dec 5, 2009 2:45 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Chasman, I was mocking you for being lazy and relying on common opponents for your analysis of the matchup, thanks for realizing how ridiculous it is to rely on that though, Bucksfan does an excellent job pointing out the reasons it is irrelevant in this case, check it out
Oregon stuffing the run as well or better than Penn St. is a pretty ridiculous statement considering that they uh, don’t, and that’s a fact supported by the numbers
I can understand Oregon’s excitement over getting into the Rose Bowl for the first time in what? 51 years? but the over inflated sense of value for your team is humorous
there will be much more on this matchup in the coming weeks, so I invite you Oregon fans to stick around, invite your friends even, it should be fun
but let me just say this, your team is nothing compared to the quality of opponents that Ohio State has played the last three years in Bowl Games, especially when it comes to your defensive line, and our offensive line happens to be in the best shape its been in years, so you will have to excuse Buckeye fans for being a little confident heading into this matchup
by Jim on Dec 5, 2009 7:52 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Who the hell let all these Oregon fans on my site?
And did anybody tell them that defense wins championships? Well, first we’ll have to explain the concept of “defense” to the entire Pac-10 conference, but still…..
by Jeff at The BBC on Dec 5, 2009 10:38 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
“And did anybody tell them that defense wins championships?”
Not from what I saw on Thursday.
From Jeff at The BBC – When you have two sub-standard teams playing in a lesser conference, defense isn’t a factor.
by Ken on Dec 5, 2009 11:36 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
The Oregon fans are still on a high from their amazing incredible 4-point win over a 4-loss team in their own stadium….give them time to crow, they’ll tucker out like always.
In the meantime, they’ll start screaming about how they beat this team and that team and it proves they will win. They’ll stomp their little feet and then they’ll hold their breath until you agree with them.
However, their pathetic comparisons are the most unscientific method you could find, and they’re often the tool used to justify fear.
In reality, their own method is flawed against them.
- Stanford beat Oregon.
- Wake Forest beat Stanford.
- Therefore, Wake Forest is better than Oregon and should be in the Rose Bowl.
As soon as Duck fans accept that, then we’ll start listening to their blathering.
-———————————
Or even better…..
- Stanford beat Oregon
- Wake Forest beat Stanford
- Navy beat Wake Forest
- Ohio State beat Navy
Game over. Don’t even bother playing it.
by Jeff at The BBC on Dec 5, 2009 2:30 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
It will be a classic O vs D battle. That said our OSU can tackle unlike thursday’s OSU. Oregon will not run for more than 200 yards and masoli is only a decent passer. While the ducks keep it within ten, the bigger stronger faster bucks win.
by Sean on Dec 5, 2009 10:48 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Hey Jim, the Oregon Dicks invaded my site over the last couple days too!
This is a great breakdown!
Oregon is 0-7 all-time vs. Ohio State and 1-3 in the Rose Bowl.
They are in BIG trouble come 1/1/10.
Also, have you ever heard such $hit-talk from fans of a 2nd rate program than we’re getting from Oregon fans?
You’d think they were the ones with the NC titles and Heisman’s, but last I checked they have zero of both…
GO BUCKEYES, BLAST THE DUCKS!
http://blog.blockonation.com/2009/12/2010-rose-bowlohio-state-vs-oregon.html
by HD from Block-O-Nation on Dec 6, 2009 5:04 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Did I really just read a post from an OREGON fan, citing DEFENSE as the reason they will beat us? Run stuffing? Are you kidding me? Don’t tell JaQuizz Rodgers that, cuz his 125 lb. ass ran all over that 11-girl unit they call a “D”
For comparison puposes only:
tOSU = America
Oregon = Third-world country, take your pick really
by BuckeyeSki on Dec 6, 2009 2:32 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
First, as a Duck, I agree. Because we beat USC and tOSU lost, doesn’t mean squat diddly. We all know that a team can be a very different team from weak to weak. And to be fair, no Duck on this site was doing the x team beat y team who lost to z team…, and so forth. The comments were a direct comment about one common opponent. Sometimes that is a fair comparison, but I think this was one fluke year where SC did not continue to grow as the season progressed.
Additionally, history doesn’t matter. A national championship in years past has no factor in a game played today. That’s the beauty of sports. Ya gotta play the game! Love it! Bring it on! This should be an epic battle.
Oregon does have one of the most explosive and creative fun-to-watch Offenses in the country…and tOSU does have one of the most talent laden Defenses in the country. Should be a great match up and a lot of fun to watch!
Looking forward to seeing you all at the Rose Bowl!
Go Ducks!
by Dukks on Dec 6, 2009 3:50 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
BuckeyeSki,
You’re joking right?
You wrote, “Don’t tell JaQuizz Rodgers that, cuz his 125 lb. ass ran all over that 11-girl unit they call a "D"”. You did watch the game, right? Or at least read the stats?
- J Rodgers ran for 64 yards
- His brother ran for 29 yards
What game were you watching?
by Dukks on Dec 6, 2009 4:04 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I live on the west coast, and Oregon fans suffer from an inferiority complex unlike anything I’ve ever seen. From what I’ve gathered from Ohio State fans, we’re just jacked to be going to the Granddaddy to experience the tradition, for Tressel to walk along the sideline he was born to walk, and to represent the Big Ten the way its supposed to be done – in the Rose Bowl against an offense-happy Pac-10 champ.
Oregon fans feel like the game has already been played, and they won 41-14…and won the national title to boot.
It’s going to be fun.
by Bucksfan on Dec 6, 2009 9:35 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Quizz ran all over the Ducks for a total of… 69 yards.
From Jeff at The BBC – ….and caught 73 more yards of passes. Fact is, you couldn’t contain him.
by woundedknees on Dec 7, 2009 7:26 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Dukks-
I watched a game that was utterly hurtful to my eyes. Two defenses that couldn’t tackle one another, and allow 60+ pts to happen. Normally its just your uniforms that hurt my eyes….Don’t count on scoring 30+ happening Jan. 1st kid. We dont miss wide open tackles, slide off RB’s, etc……and Masoli won’t dream of being able to complete that lucky bomb on our vaunted D. Good luck, you shall need it. We’ll see if “ducks fly together” my bet is they fall apart…..
by BuckeyeSki on Dec 8, 2009 4:42 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
From what I can tell, most Buckeye fans are indulging in a whole lot of the wishful thinking.
Fact of the matter is, the Ducks are practically unstoppable right now. Saying that, OSU is indeed a formidable team, and they are if nothing else very, very solid.
In my opinion, this game really comes down to whether the Ducks are ready to play or not. At Boise State, the offense came out flat and they were disorganized.
At Stanford, the offense played effectively, but the defense could not stop the most perfect offensive performance in a college football game this year. Anyone who thinks OSU can rack up the numbers that Luck, Gerhart and the six offensive linemen did obviously didn’t watch that game. Stanford’s offensive gameplan AND execution was simply unreal.
For OSU to win this game, they will need to do all of these things: Control the tempo. Force turnovers. Pass for 300+ yards. Run for 250+ yards.
If the Buckeyes can’t do all of these things, I just don’t see how they can win, given what I’ve seen from Oregon so far this year.
by parisduck on Dec 18, 2009 3:45 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
So, with all those heismans, and NC’s.. how many points does that give you in the RoseBowl??
So Oregon State had the best defense that Oregon beat.
Can someone tell me what the highest rank Offense that tOSU played against, and won
From Jeff at The BBC -
- - It gives us no points in the Rose Bowl, but it does give us a much longer history of winning and knowing how to act like we’ve been there before.
- - If Oregon State was the best defense you played, you’re in big trouble. Our players will not be missing tackles like the Beavers did. It was pathetic. Yes, we watched it. Also, if Oregon State’s 50th-ranked defense was the best you faced, then the #5 defense (ours) should terrify you.
- - The best offense we played all year was Toledo. Go ahead and laugh…they are the 16th-best offense according to the NCAA. Better than yours. They scored zero points on us. Yes, we won that game.
by Duckvile on Dec 19, 2009 3:10 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
There is a whole lot of talk about the Buckeye defense but nothing about the anemic pass offense. Our defense can stop your one dimensional team.
by bisonducks on Dec 20, 2009 2:39 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
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