http://www.footballcommentary.com/ncaaovertime.htm

While the authors of that study still suggest going on defense first, the probability of winning by doing so is only about .52.

To me, this points more to something else being the major deciding factor (probably related to red-zone offense/defense). Obviously knowing that you only need a field goal to win makes a difference, but the coin toss advantage is gone if you give up a TD.

There is a real enough advantage to being on defense first, though..

If you want to eliminate the impact of the coin toss on overtime, then you have to eliminate the coin toss.

Well, duh.

You could make the argument that the team who was on defense last should be on offense first in OT, and that’s pretty logical. You could also argue that the team who scored to force OT has earned the right to keep that momentum going (see: Ohio State/Purdue 2012) and that makes sense too.

Either way works (although option one will sound right to most people) and eliminates the coin toss.

But really what you’re talking about is eliminating the advantage of being on defense first, which I’m not sure is a real advantage as much as a perceived one.

I would make one change to your last rule change though. Rather than the 50, the 35 might make more sense. The field goal from there is 52 yards, which while possible for a current field-goal kicker, is still a rarity. That substantially increases the risk of trotting out and simply hitting a field goal to win.

The only other argument I would make is that I’m not certain that you’ve satisfied me that the Overtime is broken. If the winner of the coin toss manages to create a turnover, isn’t that enough of a big play to decide a winner? Shouldn’t the team that picked the ball off have the option of risking an easy chip-shot field goal to seal the deal?

Also, your solution doesn’t solve the “problem” of the instant win. If the defense secures a turnover and scores with it, the game is over – period. Isn’t that too much of an advantage for the team winning the coin toss? Also, if you move it back to the 50, does that not make it more likely for such an event to occur?

I’m not certainly you can successfully eliminate the advantage of winning the coin toss in an overtime. I think the college game has done an excellent job of mitigating it to the point that it’s not anywhere near the issue that it is in the NFL. I’m simply not certain that your changes are either necessary, nor necessarily solve the problem as well as you hope.